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Market Survey Results for April 2008

05/13/08 posted by Prosper Blog    

Market Commentary By Prosper Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Larsen

In April, we saw the supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff hit an all time high and approximately double compared to the prior month. At the end of March, the supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff was approximately $5 million; and at the end of April the supply increased to approximately $11 million and has remained at that level into May.

This significant increase in the supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff is attributed to the fact that on April 15 we commenced our business arrangement with WebBank, a Utah-chartered industrial bank. Through our agreement, all loans originated through the Prosper marketplace resulting from listings posted on or after April 15, 2008 are made by WebBank under its bank charter. Prosper provides services to WebBank in connection with the origination of such loans and Prosper services loans made to Prosper borrowers on behalf of registered Prosper lenders who purchase such loans. In effect, this partnership opened the platform to more borrowers, who may have previously been constrained by low state rate caps.

Also in April, we saw the supply of prime borrower listings hit an all time high, accounting for nearly half of all loan listings in terms of dollars requested. Prime borrower originations also reached its record level of 43% of funded loans.

Currently, the significant increased supply of quality listings is providing more attractive bidding opportunities, which is making it easier for lenders to efficiently deploy more money onto the platform.

Mix of Funded Borrowers

    April

2008

  April

2007

  Year-to-Date

2008

  Year-to-Date

2007

  Since

Inception

Prime   43%   30%   41%   28%   33%
Near Prime   51%   55%   53%   55%   54%
Sub Prime   6%   14%   5%   17%   13%

Membership and Loan Volume Statistics

    April

2008

  April

2007

  Year-to-Date

2008

  Year-to-Date

2007

  Since

Inception

New Members   46,312   34,144   154,585   137,849   692,713
Funded Loans ($)   $8.5 million   $8.7 million   $28.9 million   $28.3 million   $137.3 million
Funded Loans (Units)   1,305   1,091   4,379   4,145   21,699
Average Loan Size   $6,486   $7,956   $6,607   $6,824   $6,326
Daily Average Number of Borrower Listings   2,744   2,001   2,333   1,866   1,665

Estimated Annual Return on Prosper Select Index

    April 2008
Prosper Select Index   8.84%
Prime Select Index   8.90%
Near Prime Select Index   8.65%
Sub Prime Select Index   11.56%

Average Borrower Rates on Prosper Select Loans

    April

2008

  March

2008

  April

2007

 

Year-to-Date

2008

 

Year-to-Date

2007

 

Since

Inception

Prime Select Loans   9.82%   9.86%   10.44%   9.96%   9.88%   10.04%
Near Prime Select Loans   15.05%   15.52%   15.46%   15.91%   14.96%   16.04%
Sub Prime Select Loans   25.00%   35.00%   25.29%   28.88%   22.60%   24.17%

Definitions

Attractive Risk-Return Tradeoff: For purposes of this survey release, listings are considered to have attractive returns if, based on historical loan repayment performance of Prosper borrowers with similar characteristics, they are priced sufficiently to compensate lenders for risk. Risk includes both the risk of non-payment by the borrower and other risks associated with people-to-people lending. In general, as the credit quality of the borrower declines, the range of possible returns widens, requiring a larger risk premium to compensate the additional uncertainty. The amount of risk premium required to compensate for a given level of risk is a subjective judgment. The following formula is used by Prosper to determine if a listing is priced adequately to have an attractive risk adjusted return: Maximum Borrower Rate > Risk Free Rate1 + 3.25% + (Expected Annual Default * 1.5) + Prosper Servicing Fee. All lenders should make their own judgments with respect to what constitutes an adequately priced listing.

1 Risk Free Rate = 2-year CD national rate on BankRate.

Since Inception: November 1, 2005 through April 30, 2008. Prospers by invitation only friends and family launch began on November 1, 2005 and Prosper launched to the general public on February 13, 2006.

2008 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2008 through April 30, 2008.

2007 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2007 through April 30, 2007.

Prosper Select Index: The Prosper Select Index return is the estimated average annual return on principal, based on actual delinquency performance to date. The Prosper Select Index includes AA - E credit grade loans for borrowers whose credit reports at the time of application indicated zero current delinquencies, three or fewer credit inquiries, and a debt-to-income ratio of 40 percent or less. The annual return period reflects loans originated in the twelve month period ending one month prior to the observation date of April 30, 2008. Prime Select includes AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime Select includes B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime Select includes E credit grade loans (credit scores between 560 and 599).

Average Borrower Rates: Average Borrower Rates are the weighted average borrower rates on Prosper Select Index loans with loan amounts between $5,000 and $10,000. Rates shown are interest rates, not annual percentage rates.

Mix of Funded Borrowers: Prime includes all AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime includes all B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime includes all E and HR credit grade loans (credit scores below 600).


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5 Responses


NewHorizon | May 13th, 2008 at 3:40 pm

Regarding “actual delinquency performance to date,” are the loans that Mr. Fuller mentioned here
http://blog.prosper.com/2008/05/02/debt-sale-update/
considered delinquent for the purposes of this calculation?


Peer Lend | May 16th, 2008 at 3:58 pm

Regarding NewHorizon’s comment above, the 66 defaulted loans which are involved in the New Agency Test (where Prosper is suing delinquent borrowers) are classified in the official marketplace data w/a loan status of “repurchased”.

This has implications to marketplace transparency and data integrity, and more can be read here.

Whether or not Prosper has included these loans properly as “defaulted” for the purposes of the above MarketPlace Survey is best left for Prosper to answer, but for those who play with the performance data on their own, knowing that these loans are, in actuality, “defaults” is a “Significant Data Change” to take into account - even though it’s not currently included in Prosper’s list of “Significant Data Changes”.

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