Market Commentary By Prosper Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Larsen

In April, we saw the supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff hit an all time high and approximately double compared to the prior month. At the end of March, the supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff was approximately $5 million; and at the end of April the supply increased to approximately $11 million and has remained at that level into May.

This significant increase in the supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff is attributed to the fact that on April 15 we commenced our business arrangement with WebBank, a Utah-chartered industrial bank. Through our agreement, all loans originated through the Prosper marketplace resulting from listings posted on or after April 15, 2008 are made by WebBank under its bank charter. Prosper provides services to WebBank in connection with the origination of such loans and Prosper services loans made to Prosper borrowers on behalf of registered Prosper lenders who purchase such loans. In effect, this partnership opened the platform to more borrowers, who may have previously been constrained by low state rate caps.

Also in April, we saw the supply of prime borrower listings hit an all time high, accounting for nearly half of all loan listings in terms of dollars requested. Prime borrower originations also reached its record level of 43% of funded loans.

Currently, the significant increased supply of quality listings is providing more attractive bidding opportunities, which is making it easier for lenders to efficiently deploy more money onto the platform.

Mix of Funded Borrowers

Membership and Loan Volume Statistics

Estimated Annual Return on Prosper Select Index

Average Borrower Rates on Prosper Select Loans

Definitions

Attractive Risk-Return Tradeoff: For purposes of this survey release, listings are considered to have attractive returns if, based on historical loan repayment performance of Prosper borrowers with similar characteristics, they are priced sufficiently to compensate lenders for risk. Risk includes both the risk of non-payment by the borrower and other risks associated with people-to-people lending. In general, as the credit quality of the borrower declines, the range of possible returns widens, requiring a larger risk premium to compensate the additional uncertainty. The amount of risk premium required to compensate for a given level of risk is a subjective judgment. The following formula is used by Prosper to determine if a listing is priced adequately to have an attractive risk adjusted return: Maximum Borrower Rate > Risk Free Rate¹ + 3.25% + (Expected Annual Default * 1.5) + Prosper Servicing Fee. All lenders should make their own judgments with respect to what constitutes an adequately priced listing.

¹ Risk Free Rate = 2-year CD national rate on BankRate.

Since Inception: November 1, 2005 through April 30, 2008. Prosper’s by invitation only “friends and family” launch began on November 1, 2005 and Prosper launched to the general public on February 13, 2006.

2008 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2008 through April 30, 2008.

2007 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2007 through April 30, 2007.

Prosper Select Index: The Prosper Select Index return is the estimated average annual return on principal, based on actual delinquency performance to date. The Prosper Select Index includes AA - E credit grade loans for borrowers whose credit reports at the time of application indicated zero current delinquencies, three or fewer credit inquiries, and a debt-to-income ratio of 40 percent or less. The annual return period reflects loans originated in the twelve month period ending one month prior to the observation date of April 30, 2008. Prime Select includes AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime Select includes B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime Select includes E credit grade loans (credit scores between 560 and 599).

Average Borrower Rates: Average Borrower Rates are the weighted average borrower rates on Prosper Select Index loans with loan amounts between $5,000 and $10,000. Rates shown are interest rates, not annual percentage rates.

Mix of Funded Borrowers: Prime includes all AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime includes all B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime includes all E and HR credit grade loans (credit scores below 600).

In observance of Earth Day, Prosper surveyed US consumers last week to better understand their financial attitudes towards implementing eco-friendly home improvements.

The main finding is that although consumers have a strong desire to implement energy-saving home improvements, they are deterred by the high costs of these projects:

• 91% care about conserving natural resources
• While 60% of survey respondents listed ‘saving money on bills’ as an incentive to adopt a green lifestyle, 75% of respondents indicated that they are deterred from pursuing energy-saving home improvements due to high costs of implementation.

As a community for social lending, Prosper offers eco-conscious Americans with good credit histories a way to connect with their like-minded peers to fund green projects in an affordable way. A separate survey of Prosper lenders found that 25% of respondents have bid on borrowers’ loan listings to support green projects, and 93% of respondents would consider bidding on such listings.

1. Are you concerned with conserving natural resources?

2. Which of the following is the number one incentive for you to implement energy saving personal / home improvements? (please select only one)

3. What is the number one deterrent for you to implement energy-saving personal / home improvements? (please select only one)

4. What types of personal / home improvements have you invested in to save energy? (please select all that apply)

5. About how much did you spend in 2007 on energy saving personal / home improvements?

6. What types of personal / home improvements do you plan to implement in 2008 to save energy? (please select all that apply)

7. How much do you expect to spend on energy saving personal / home improvements in 2008?

The following is a guest post by a Prosper member: CreditKarma…  You can use the Prosper Performance tool to estimate default risk for Prosper loans.

When I was a marketing and risk analyst with a credit card issuer, the customer’s credit score never really mattered per se. My concern was always with the default risk for any given score. For example, it was more important to know that a 720 FICO™ Score customer had a 1 in 237 probability of default. The score was meaningless to me (the lender) without the corresponding risk probability.

As such, I always wondered why Fair Isaac and credit bureaus used arbitrary scores when default risk is so much more informative to all parties. If I had to speculate, I would guess the following reasons:

1. Intellectual Property Protection - It is probably much easier to patent and copyright some arbitrary score and score algorithm than it is to patent logistic regression (the math term used in developing scores) and an arbitrary score range.
2. Consumers Don’t Want to Be Labeled - Consumers may object to such an outright classification as default risk. To say one person is a 450 FICO™ is probably not as offensive as saying that person has a 1 in 3 chance of defaulting on a loan.

Today, the reason is moot as it has become ingrained in consumers. As I read the comments in various blogs and discussion forums, I am still amazed at the level of mis-information accepted as truth. People claiming there certain scores are FAKO’s* or that doing X will yield Y result in your score. I personally think the confusion stems from the number of data sources, models, default variables, and uses of scores. It took me a degree in mathematics, economics, and 10 years of industry experience just to get my arms around credit scores and credit uses.

All this brings me back to the question: why doesn’t the industry just share your default risk? Isn’t that just an easier thing to understand than some arbitrary score range. Some people may object to a probability label but as they say, “a rose by any other name…”

Editor’s Note: *FAKO or Fake-O has been around for years, but the term was popularized by Suze Orman fairly recently. Orman is, admittedly, on Fair Isaac’s payroll.

This is a guest post from Prosper Lender David Makes Cents.

I was just reading an article that I found on Stumble Upon that made me mad! Well ok not really mad because I am a pretty mellow person, but lets just say I didn’t agree with it. The name of their post is pretty much the opposite of mine it was: Why I think P2p lending is a bad idea. So in this post I will try to prove to you otherwise and tell you about my positive experience with p2p lending sites.

Quick p2p history

Ok, so if you haven’t heard of p2p lending I am going to try to catch you up real fast because this is not really the point of the post. Peer to Peer (p2p) lending is essentially people with a little extra cash helping out those who need a little extra cash by giving them better interest rates than they would other wise get from a credit card.

Why P2P lending helps borrowers.

1. Borrowers can get credit that they would not have otherwise been able to get. With the credit crunch as it is, it is becoming increasingly hard to obtain credit. Many ordinary folks with good to decent credit are no longer able to obtain credit. I know you may be saying to yourself, “Credit is bad, these people would be better off without credit.” Well I disagree. Currently the market is looking pretty rough, some people would not be able to put food on their table without credit. If enough people had credit, the economy would get a boost and then they would have jobs to be able to pay back their loans.
2. Borrowers can get lower rates than they would from credit cards. Even though the Fed has been dropping rates left and right, credit card rates have stayed high. This is due to a dry up of credit. It is getting hard for common people to get credit anymore. Prosper and other p2p lending sites’ rates have been holding steady. This is because there is still around the same supply of people lending on these sites and the popularity of p2p throughout the blogosphere.

Why P2P lending helps lenders

1. Much Better rates! Right now the stock market is way down. Most analysts predict it to be going down or making small gains for the next few years. Investors need a place to put their money. P2P lending is an excellent place to put this. If you invest in the people with decent credit scores, you will get pretty good rates of return.
2. Good diversification. With most of the major p2p lending sites like Prosper , you can invest as little as $50 per person. If you are investing a few thousand dollars, you can have your money spread out amongst 100s of people. All the major investors praise diversification.
3. Helping others. This is a big part of the reason I lend on p2p sites. I mainly bid on loans that are looking for debt consolidation. With these loans, borrowers are allowed to pay off all their credit cards and put all of their debt into one single, lower payment. The rates are always lower than they would to be to the credit card banks. I am letting them keep more of their own money.

Summary

One of the points that the author of the post I am responding to said was that the only reason people are promoting p2p lending is for referrals. Well in this post I HAVE USED NO REFERRAL LINKS. I would hate to be discredited by something as stupid as that. I have been investing in Prosper for a while now and have no defaults or late payments. Every one I have lent to has paid me back on time. I am currently putting another $1k into my account because I like it so much

The only reason I would put in the referring link is so that potential new lenders could receive the $25 dollar bonus that Prosper offers if they want to sign up. I am not going to put a link in my post but I will have a banner on my sidebar that is an affiliate link. If you read this and are interested in signing up consider finding a referral banner to sign up so that you will receive the $25 bonus.

*If you liked this post please check out this and other posts at http://www.davidmakescents.com

Market Commentary By Prosper Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Larsen

As we have previously reported, Prosper’s mix of “well priced” loans – loans with an attractive risk-return tradeoff – has dramatically changed from the same period last year with approximately a 200% increase in the percentage of “well priced” loans and a six-fold decrease in “low priced” loans – loans with an unattractive risk-return tradeoff. Part of this positive trend is attributable to the introduction of portfolio plans and performance guidance from the Prosper Marketplace – changes introduced last October. These changes continue to drive better overall performance of the market.

In March we saw further evidence of this with portfolio plan performance improving. For example, the Conservative portfolio plan – one of four model portfolio plans Prosper has provided as templates that can be used by lenders – consists of five credit slices. Looking at all the credit slices across all four plans, 18 of 21 slices improved or remained constant. This is quite positive considering the continuing credit crunch occurring in so many traditional financial markets and should lead to both better rates for borrowers and better performance for lenders.

We are also seeing a healthy start of custom portfolio plans, which lenders can create from scratch or modify from an existing Prosper model plan. These plans can be easily shared with friends or family. In March, approximately 1,800 custom plans were created that spawned over 18,000 bids.

Definitions

Portfolio Plans: A portfolio plan is an automatic bidding tool that enables lenders to create their own bidding strategies and have bids placed automatically on listings that match the lender’s desired lending criteria. Prosper lenders can create portfolio plans consisting of multiple slices of credit attributes.

Since Inception: November 1, 2005 through March 31, 2008. Prosper’s by invitation only “friends and family” launch began on November 1, 2005 and Prosper launched to the general public on February 13, 2006.

2008 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2008 through March 31, 2008.

2007 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2007 through March 31, 2007.

Prosper Select Index: The Prosper Select Index return is the estimated average annual return on principal, based on actual delinquency performance to date. The Prosper Select Index includes AA - E credit grade loans for borrowers whose credit reports at the time of application indicated zero current delinquencies, three or fewer credit inquiries, and a debt-to-income ratio of 40 percent or less. The annual return period reflects loans originated in the twelve month period ending one month prior to the observation date of March 31, 2008. Prime Select includes AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime Select includes B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime Select includes E credit grade loans (credit scores between 560 and 599).

Average Borrower Rates: Average Borrower Rates are the weighted average borrower rates on Prosper Select Index loans with loan amounts between $5,000 and $10,000. Rates shown are interest rates, not annual percentage rates.

Mix of Funded Borrowers: Prime includes all AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime includes all B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime includes all E and HR credit grade loans (credit scores below 600).

N/A: = Not available; no loans met these criteria.