Archive for the ‘ Market Survey ’ Category

Market Commentary By Prosper Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Larsen

In June, two very interesting independent academic studies were released. The first study by Economists Ginger Zhe Jin and Seth Freedman of the University of Maryland looks at Prosper’s market since inception to determine average returns and other interesting conclusions about the market.

Another study led by Paul Dholakia at Rice University finds that decisions made by Prosper lenders are much less likely to be influenced by race or gender and “strong evidence for the democratization of lending practices in P2P loan auctions.” The study also cites that bidders on Prosper:

As we have previously stated, one of our primary objectives in making Prosper market data fully transparent and freely available via an API is to allow and encourage anyone to study the Prosper market and consumer credit markets in general. We deeply appreciate the level of diligence and analysis so many have contributed using Prosper’s marketplace data. We are also very encouraged that an increasing number of academics, economists and professional credit analysts have taken the time to conduct deep studies of the market and share their conclusions publicly.

Definitions

Since Inception: November 1, 2005 through June 30, 2008. Prosper’s by invitation only “friends and family” launch began on November 1, 2005 and Prosper launched to the general public on February 13, 2006.

2008 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2008 through June 30, 2008.

2007 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2007 through June 30, 2007.

Prosper Select Index: The Prosper Select Index return is the estimated average annual return on principal, based on actual delinquency performance to date. The Prosper Select Index includes AA - E credit grade loans for borrowers whose credit reports at the time of application indicated zero current delinquencies, three or fewer credit inquiries, and a debt-to-income ratio of 40 percent or less. The annual return period reflects loans originated in the twelve month period ending one month prior to the observation date of June 30, 2008. Prime Select includes AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime Select includes B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime Select includes E credit grade loans (credit scores between 560 and 599).

Average Borrower Rates: Average Borrower Rates are the weighted average borrower rates on Prosper Select Index loans with loan amounts between $5,000 and $10,000. Rates shown are interest rates, not annual percentage rates.

Mix of Funded Borrowers: Prime includes all AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime includes all B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime includes all E and HR credit grade loans (credit scores below 600).

¹ Rick L. Andrews, Utpal (Paul) Dholakia, Michal Herzenstein, Evgeny Lyandres (2008), “The Democratization of Personal Consumer Loans? Determinants of Success in Online Peer-to-Peer Loan Auctions,” 31

Market Commentary By Prosper Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Larsen

In May, a record number of loans – in terms of dollars and units – were funded in the Prosper marketplace. The sudden increased supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff (as cited in last month’s survey) was the key driver of the record level of originations. Also notable in May and worthy of further discussion are two recently introduced marketing initiatives.

Earlier this spring, Prosper began testing a radio advertising campaign in select major metro markets, and in early May we unveiled our new Lets Bank on Each Other^™ tagline and pilot TV ad campaign in the Minneapolis metro region. No actors were used for the television campaign; rather they feature real Prosper borrowers and lenders who have benefited financially and socially through their participation in the marketplace. In June, we expanded the television campaign pilot to select San Francisco Bay Area markets and continued our radio campaign in select markets around the country.

Another new initiative is the enhancement we made to our Facebook application. After experiencing very limited success on Facebook, in mid-April we decided to lower the minimum instant transfer amount to $50 for lenders who install the Prosper Facebook application. For lenders who do not install the application, the minimum instant transfer amount must be $500 and less than 20% of their active loan value. Since the introduction of the new feature, the adoption of the application has significantly increased, growing from a mere 400 users to approximately 4,000 users. This indicates that the added benefit is serving lender demand for lower minimum instant transfer amounts. In addition to the $50 instant transfer feature, the application enables Prosper members who use Facebook to share their Prosper listings, bids, and watched listings with their family and friends on Facebook.

Definitions

Attractive Risk-Return Tradeoff: For purposes of this survey release, listings are considered to have attractive returns if, based on historical loan repayment performance of Prosper borrowers with similar characteristics, they are priced sufficiently to compensate lenders for risk. Risk includes both the risk of non-payment by the borrower and other risks associated with people-to-people lending. In general, as the credit quality of the borrower declines, the range of possible returns widens, requiring a larger risk premium to compensate the additional uncertainty. The amount of risk premium required to compensate for a given level of risk is a subjective judgment. The following formula is used by Prosper to determine if a listing is priced adequately to have an attractive risk adjusted return: Maximum Borrower Rate > Risk Free Rate¹ + 3.25% + (Expected Annual Default * 1.5) + Prosper Servicing Fee. All lenders must make their own judgments with respect to what constitutes an adequately priced listing.

¹Risk Free Rate = 2-year CD national rate on BankRate.

Since Inception: November 1, 2005 through May 31, 2008. Prosper’s by invitation only “friends and family” launch began on November 1, 2005 and Prosper launched to the general public on February 13, 2006.

2008 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2008 through May 31, 2008.

2007 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2007 through May 31, 2007.

Prosper Select Index: The Prosper Select Index return is the estimated average annual return on principal, based on actual delinquency performance to date. The Prosper Select Index includes AA - E credit grade loans for borrowers whose credit reports at the time of application indicated zero current delinquencies, three or fewer credit inquiries, and a debt-to-income ratio of 40 percent or less. The annual return period reflects loans originated in the twelve month period ending one month prior to the observation date of May 31, 2008. Prime Select includes AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime Select includes B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime Select includes E credit grade loans (credit scores between 560 and 599).

Average Borrower Rates: Average Borrower Rates are the weighted average borrower rates on Prosper Select Index loans with loan amounts between $5,000 and $10,000. Rates shown are interest rates, not annual percentage rates.

Mix of Funded Borrowers: Prime includes all AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime includes all B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime includes all E and HR credit grade loans (credit scores below 600).

Market Commentary By Prosper Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Larsen

In April, we saw the supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff hit an all time high and approximately double compared to the prior month. At the end of March, the supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff was approximately $5 million; and at the end of April the supply increased to approximately $11 million and has remained at that level into May.

This significant increase in the supply of loan listings with an attractive risk-return tradeoff is attributed to the fact that on April 15 we commenced our business arrangement with WebBank, a Utah-chartered industrial bank. Through our agreement, all loans originated through the Prosper marketplace resulting from listings posted on or after April 15, 2008 are made by WebBank under its bank charter. Prosper provides services to WebBank in connection with the origination of such loans and Prosper services loans made to Prosper borrowers on behalf of registered Prosper lenders who purchase such loans. In effect, this partnership opened the platform to more borrowers, who may have previously been constrained by low state rate caps.

Also in April, we saw the supply of prime borrower listings hit an all time high, accounting for nearly half of all loan listings in terms of dollars requested. Prime borrower originations also reached its record level of 43% of funded loans.

Currently, the significant increased supply of quality listings is providing more attractive bidding opportunities, which is making it easier for lenders to efficiently deploy more money onto the platform.

Mix of Funded Borrowers

Membership and Loan Volume Statistics

Estimated Annual Return on Prosper Select Index

Average Borrower Rates on Prosper Select Loans

Definitions

Attractive Risk-Return Tradeoff: For purposes of this survey release, listings are considered to have attractive returns if, based on historical loan repayment performance of Prosper borrowers with similar characteristics, they are priced sufficiently to compensate lenders for risk. Risk includes both the risk of non-payment by the borrower and other risks associated with people-to-people lending. In general, as the credit quality of the borrower declines, the range of possible returns widens, requiring a larger risk premium to compensate the additional uncertainty. The amount of risk premium required to compensate for a given level of risk is a subjective judgment. The following formula is used by Prosper to determine if a listing is priced adequately to have an attractive risk adjusted return: Maximum Borrower Rate > Risk Free Rate¹ + 3.25% + (Expected Annual Default * 1.5) + Prosper Servicing Fee. All lenders should make their own judgments with respect to what constitutes an adequately priced listing.

¹ Risk Free Rate = 2-year CD national rate on BankRate.

Since Inception: November 1, 2005 through April 30, 2008. Prosper’s by invitation only “friends and family” launch began on November 1, 2005 and Prosper launched to the general public on February 13, 2006.

2008 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2008 through April 30, 2008.

2007 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2007 through April 30, 2007.

Prosper Select Index: The Prosper Select Index return is the estimated average annual return on principal, based on actual delinquency performance to date. The Prosper Select Index includes AA - E credit grade loans for borrowers whose credit reports at the time of application indicated zero current delinquencies, three or fewer credit inquiries, and a debt-to-income ratio of 40 percent or less. The annual return period reflects loans originated in the twelve month period ending one month prior to the observation date of April 30, 2008. Prime Select includes AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime Select includes B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime Select includes E credit grade loans (credit scores between 560 and 599).

Average Borrower Rates: Average Borrower Rates are the weighted average borrower rates on Prosper Select Index loans with loan amounts between $5,000 and $10,000. Rates shown are interest rates, not annual percentage rates.

Mix of Funded Borrowers: Prime includes all AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime includes all B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime includes all E and HR credit grade loans (credit scores below 600).

Market Commentary By Prosper Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Larsen

As we have previously reported, Prosper’s mix of “well priced” loans – loans with an attractive risk-return tradeoff – has dramatically changed from the same period last year with approximately a 200% increase in the percentage of “well priced” loans and a six-fold decrease in “low priced” loans – loans with an unattractive risk-return tradeoff. Part of this positive trend is attributable to the introduction of portfolio plans and performance guidance from the Prosper Marketplace – changes introduced last October. These changes continue to drive better overall performance of the market.

In March we saw further evidence of this with portfolio plan performance improving. For example, the Conservative portfolio plan – one of four model portfolio plans Prosper has provided as templates that can be used by lenders – consists of five credit slices. Looking at all the credit slices across all four plans, 18 of 21 slices improved or remained constant. This is quite positive considering the continuing credit crunch occurring in so many traditional financial markets and should lead to both better rates for borrowers and better performance for lenders.

We are also seeing a healthy start of custom portfolio plans, which lenders can create from scratch or modify from an existing Prosper model plan. These plans can be easily shared with friends or family. In March, approximately 1,800 custom plans were created that spawned over 18,000 bids.

Definitions

Portfolio Plans: A portfolio plan is an automatic bidding tool that enables lenders to create their own bidding strategies and have bids placed automatically on listings that match the lender’s desired lending criteria. Prosper lenders can create portfolio plans consisting of multiple slices of credit attributes.

Since Inception: November 1, 2005 through March 31, 2008. Prosper’s by invitation only “friends and family” launch began on November 1, 2005 and Prosper launched to the general public on February 13, 2006.

2008 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2008 through March 31, 2008.

2007 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2007 through March 31, 2007.

Prosper Select Index: The Prosper Select Index return is the estimated average annual return on principal, based on actual delinquency performance to date. The Prosper Select Index includes AA - E credit grade loans for borrowers whose credit reports at the time of application indicated zero current delinquencies, three or fewer credit inquiries, and a debt-to-income ratio of 40 percent or less. The annual return period reflects loans originated in the twelve month period ending one month prior to the observation date of March 31, 2008. Prime Select includes AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime Select includes B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime Select includes E credit grade loans (credit scores between 560 and 599).

Average Borrower Rates: Average Borrower Rates are the weighted average borrower rates on Prosper Select Index loans with loan amounts between $5,000 and $10,000. Rates shown are interest rates, not annual percentage rates.

Mix of Funded Borrowers: Prime includes all AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime includes all B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime includes all E and HR credit grade loans (credit scores below 600).

N/A: = Not available; no loans met these criteria.

Market Commentary By Prosper Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Larsen.

In February 2008, the percentage of prime loans funded on Prosper once again hit record levels, accounting for 43% of originations. At the same time, the percentage of prime listings on Prosper hit an all time high of just over 18% — a big jump from 9% in February 2007 and the previous high of 12% in December 2007 — while the percentage of sub prime listings hit an all time low of 33% and accounted for a mere 6% of funded loans.

Some other key metrics we watch closely include the type of listings that are created and funded in the Prosper marketplace. Very broadly, we look at listings that, based on historical Prosper loan performance data, can be made at an attractive risk-return tradeoff and those that can only be made at an unattractive risk-return tradeoff. By providing more robust information to lenders on the expected returns of listings, we have seen an increase in originations from attractive risk-return listings of over 200% and a decrease in originations from unattractive risk-return listings of 80% over the course of the last year.

As we discussed at our Prosper Days community conference, these dramatic and constructive shifts in the marketplace have been driven by three key factors: the pervasive credit crunch and sub prime mortgage meltdown; recently introduced performance data-driven tools and features; and, increasing mainstream acceptance of Prosper as an attractive funding source and asset class.

Press Release: Prime Borrowing on Prosper Hits Record Levels